Browns quarterback assessment, Part 1

Imagine being a kid near Christmas time. You asked for a PS3. You're 10 years old, and you are excited for the opportunity to run over prostitutes and explode the heads of terrorists. Tempted by an unbridled curiosity, you snoop around your house, high and low, from nook to cranny, looking for a stash of presents.

Lo and behold, tucked underneath a pile of blankets in the attic is a PS3 box. Hurray! Just what you wanted! You didn't even really expect to get a PS3, but there it is, plain as day! You wait for two weeks that feel like two years until finally, Christmas morning, you open your PS3! Hurray, again! You waited patiently for a present you knew was coming and now you get to play!!!

Only it doesn't work. And your parents lost the receipt. Every couple of days it comes on for a half hour and you get to murder a pedestrian, but then it shuts off, doesn't save, and for some reason, smells like dried cat turds.

This is the best way for me to describe the Brady Quinn era thus far. Unmatched enthusiasm, little fun, huge let down, nonrefundable.

The question is, will it stay this way? Like an episode of Glee, there is little reason to think it will get any better, but it is important to remember Quinn is only nine starts into his NFL career. It feels like he's been on the team since Charlie Frye was the QB (because he has been), but he's only started what amounts to half of one season. And three of those starts came under a completely different regime. And he's never entered into a season knowing he was going to be the starting QB, worked with decent receivers an entire offseason, or been within a competent offensive system for an extended period of time. Not exactly a recipe for success. But let's take all of those variables from the equation and compare cold hard stats of various QBs in their first nine games with Quinn and see if there is any reason to believe.

I chose most of today's great QBs, some of the good QBs, and some of the most recent—including, in my opinion, the worst starting QB the last two years. I've bolded the worst numbers. The best numbers are in red. The number(s) in parentheses is(are) the season(s) in which these starts came.

PLAYER............... COMP %...YDS....TDs....INTs...RATING
Quinn (2-3)...............53%.......1,430.... ..7........7........66.3
Manning, P (1)...........55%......2,013......12......18.......74
Brady, T (2)...............66% .....1,823..... 16 ......7....... 95
Roethlisberger, B (1)..61%.......1,412.......10......4........90
Brees, D (2)................62%.......1,663......10.....10........80
Manning, E (1-2).......48%......1,380......9......11........69
Rivers, P (3)...............66%.......2,085....13.......3.....102
Orton, K (1)................55%.......1,253......7......10......65
Rodgers, A (4)............63%.......2,124.....13......5........93
Cutler, J (1-2).............63%.......1,927......13.....10.......83
Ryan, M (1).................61%.......1,909......11.....5........99
Russell, J (1-2)...........47%.....1,662.......8......8.........66
AVERAGES...............58%........1,750......11......8.........82

Do these numbers tell us anything? Well, unfortunately, I think Quinn's numbers look the worst for a few reasons. His numbers are low in every category—lower than the average of this unscientific sample—despite avoiding the difficult task of starting his first year. You'll note Rivers and Rodgers have some of the best numbers after waiting a few seasons on the bench. The worst indictment—his numbers aren't too different from JaMarcus Russell, whom we all know is a pathetic lump behind center.

However, these numbers also show several of today's QBs got off to rocky starts. And, knowing where some of these careers go (Brees was considered so bad the Chargers drafted Rivers, Manning becomes a Hall of Famer, Cutler is a bum, Orton is all of a sudden efficient), this small, early sample is obviously an incomplete picture of where one's career will end up.

Then again, in some examples, it is dead on. (JaMarcus Russell)

After part 1 of this QB assessment—after looking at the numbers and thinking about all that could be contributing to Quinn's sad stats in his young career—the prognosis is incomplete but not looking good.

Let's see where part 2 takes us.