Thursday, August 26, 2010

Bold statement: The Tribe is the closest to a title

Well, it’s that time of year where all of Cleveland gets pumped to get let down by the Browns while a small smattering of fans still silently wallow in an Indians depression and drink themselves to sleep. Even the most ardent Indians apologists – like myself – have to admit the team is pathetic right now.

BOLD STATEMENT ALERT!! However, I maintain that the Tribe is the closest Cleveland team to a title. GASP! How can I say this? On what grounds??

Glad you asked ...

Historical precedence:

• The Tribe is bad this year, not unlike how bad the team was in 2002 (74-88) and 2003 (68-94), the last time the team was gutted and rebuilt. By 2005 though, we won 93 games. In 2007, we won 96 and were outs away from the World Series. That may have been a miraculous, once-in-a-lifetime event, but it happened, and it shows that the Dolan/Shapiro Indians have turned things around to near title contention quickly after a pathetic patch of baseball.

• Despite the hope surrounding the Holmgren era, there’s no evidence to show the Browns are closer to a title now than in any other year during this last decade of nothingness. Teams in the NFL can turn around quickly, but still, this is the F’ing Browns, and our mini-2007 run at the playoffs notwithstanding, I’ll believe it when I see it.

• The Cavs? We went to the finals ONCE. And it was with the talents of That Other Player in Miami on the team. Those talents, if I'm not mistaken, are in South Beach, and there's no reason to believe the Cavs will ever get close again without him. Gilbert is an owner willing to sell his grandmother into sex slavery to win a title, but until there is some positive team-building minus No. 6, there's no reason to give them an edge over the Tribe, a team that's contended on rags and a small payroll in the recent past.

MLB v NFL v NBA

• Baseball takes its lumps because it rewards the rich teams and poops in the mouth of the mid-market teams. However, a mid-market team that drafts well, trades its veterans well and has a plan to blend all of its young talent together at the right time always has a chance. The window might be smaller, and it might be less fun, but it’s a window, and it can happen out of nowhere—like Tampa Bay the last few years and San Diego this year (or not at all ... sorry Pirates fans).

The minor league system allows a team to constantly tinker and work toward improvement, and we can all watch and get excited about what might be. Prospects are a gamble, and sometimes (OK, often) I get stupidly excited (like when I was pumped for Trevor Crowe in 2006), but it’s a tangible reason to hope. In baseball, the team's next superstar is actually in the organization, developing. In the other sports, a team's future rests in mock drafts or trade rumors.

• With the NFL, things turn on a dime. Spend money on a free agent and he tears every ligament in his knee on the first snap of the preseason, gets staph infection and dies. The hard salary cap and short shelf life of many players makes continuity difficult. Teams come out of nowhere to succeed in any given year, but those teams often disappear just as quickly. It's much more difficult to forecast the future of an NFL team.

• In the NBA, if you don’t have a superstar, you’re totally screwed. And the only way to get one is to draft one high in the draft. The only way to do that is to suck really bad. And even then, the dude you draft might be an over-sized goof who gets his penis exposed on the Internet while recovering from multiple knew surgeries (sorry Greg Oden). Superstars normally stay with the team that drafts them because of how the NBA is setup. That old adage might be changing, with players taking their talents to other places and whatnot, but even if it is—no superstar is willing coming to Cleveland as a free agent. That much we know.

It’s very easy to be a middle-of-the-road NBA team, and the Cavs might be closer to middle-of-the-road than the Tribe, but they are no where near a title. At all. I dare say the Cavs are the furthest team from a title at this moment.

Playoff chances

• The Browns have to be better than the Steelers and the Ravens in any given year to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. And being better than those teams probably means beating them the four combined times we play them in a season. The Bengals are starting to shape up now too. That's a lot of muscle in one division. But say we get a wild card spot. Then the Browns have to beat three teams just to get to the Super Bowl. In the NFL playoffs, any fluky thing can happen. Luck is a huge factor. Bottom line, there have been XLIII Super Bowls. The Browns have had really good teams at various points during that timespan. We've never been in a Super Bowl. I need more than Jake Delhomme and Mike Holmgren to believe the Browns can get this done. Ever.

• The Cavs' division doesn't really matter. They have the best chance of squeaking into the playoffs in any given year because they are in the East. But squeaking into the NBA playoffs doesn't get a team very far, having to win three seven-game series to get to the championship—without a superstar. (The number one seed doesn't seem to get a team very far either.)

• The Tribe is in the Central Division. It is weaker than Travis Hafner's shoulder. The Tigers and White Sox trade years being mediocre, with neither showing any real team-building plan. The Twins usually are good, but not great, and certainly not rich. The Tribe only has to be better than these teams to make the playoffs. Oh, also, the Royals are a team.

From there, beat a team in a five-game series, another in a seven-game series, and it's time to play in the World Series. Definitely not easy, but it's the easiest of the three routes, I believe.

Team future

• The Cavs' future is impossible to predict because they have a large trade exception, and we’re not entirely sure how bad they will be. No.1-pick-level bad?

Having Gilbert helps, but throwing money at problems hasn’t helped the Knicks and I have as many titles as Mark Cuban. So, that’s no guarantee. Right now, as it stands, we’re pinning our hopes on Mo Williams, 34-year-old Antawn Jameson, JJ Hickson and Andy Varejao. Yikes.

• The Browns appear to be heading in the right direction. Holmgren seems to have a plan and our last draft looked decent. But we still have no QB. Jake Delhomme might be serviceable, but he’s not winning a Super Bowl. Colt McCoy looks like a young Charlie Frye. No QB means no shot. Until that changes, they are not winning a Super Bowl.

• The Tribe might lose 100 games this year, which, in a power ranking, would put them at the bottom of the three teams right now. But I still believe wins and losses this year do not paint a picture of this team’s future, which, unlike the Browns, exists in the organization already. Grady Sizemore and Carlos Santana are both out. Despite Grady’s poor play before the injury and Santana’s youth, those are significant injuries. Seriously, replace Pujols with Lou Marson and see how great the Cardinals look.

I hate to keep throwing my penny into the wishing well that is minor league baseball, but the Tribe still has several top prospects that haven't arrived in Cleveland. If the Indians loses 100 games with Choo, Sizemore, LaPorta, Santana, Cabrera, Weglarz, Chisenhall, Carassco, Carmona, Gomez, Rondon, White, Hagadone, Perez, Gardner, Knapp and so on (give or take a name or two), then I’ll officially give in and say they have no shot at contention and should fold the organization. But with baseball, and with the Tribe, in the Central Division, it’s smarter (and easier, I guess) to have a wider perspective, a longer view of the situation.

One hundred losses or not, I still see seeds that may blossom into a contender. And whether it’s how the leagues are setup or historical precedence, I just don’t see it the same way for our other teams.

There it is. The Tribe is the closest to a title. ... Drink up, everybody! First beers are on me. (Who's getting the next 19,000?)

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Seriously, No. 6, don't ever come back to Cleveland

Ok, he brought it up, so let's talk about it. If That Other Player in Miami ever, in a million years, ever came back to the Cavs—I would never, in a million years, ever root for him.

I'm the guy who openly admits he would root for a convicted animal rapist as long as he was wearing a Cleveland uniform. That's the job as a fan, to root for the laundry. Charles Manson just got signed as the Browns' punter? Awesome. Hope he does good. Dick Cheney is going to be the Indians' DH? Hope he drives in some runs!

But if No. 6 ever, in a million years, ever came back to play for Cleveland—hell, if he played for the F'ing Lake County Captains—I would refuse to support the team.

Yes, I said it. That's an occasion where hate trumps laundry. Would you root for Art Modell if he came back to be the president of the Browns? I mean, you'd root for the Browns, I guess, but you'd want Modell to get hit by a bus, right? Well, No. 6 would be playing for the Cavs. On the court. The only way for him to fail is for the team to fail. The conflict of interest is so great, I would honestly divorce from the team until he was gone. I'd never watch him play in our uniform again.

Never! F you, No. 6. You're a piece of shit. You may be joking about all of this and acting like it would be a cute story if you came back and played on our team some day, but it's not funny and it's not cute. It's F'ing disgusting. It makes me want to punch your throat even harder than I do now. And if I discussed how hard I already want to punch your throat with a physicist, I'd be told that it's A) impossible for me to ever punch that hard, and B) You can't disembowel someone from a punch to the throat. So, yeah, I'd want to punch you harder than THAT if you came back to the Cavs, you back-stabbing douchebag.

You just don't get it. You hated Cleveland when you were 5 years old, so you treat our fine city indifferently now. Well, how nice and myopic of you. Just another town to take your talents to, right? Wrong, you dumb shit! F you. Never once, in your professional life (which for us, started when you were 15) did we ever treat you less than a god. We loved you unconditionally. You could have murdered a room full of puppies when you were 16, but if you just stayed here in Cleveland and said you liked us, we wouldn't have cared. But guess what? You F'd us. And you couldn't have cared less. And you did it on F'ing national TV no less. So, if you ever do come back, it's not some sort of Disney fairy tale to us. It's an insult. It's an afterthought. It's you saying "F it, [No. 6] ain't got nothing better to do, so we're going back to Cleveland."

What's done is done. We shouldn't have loved you that much in the first place, and we know that now. You "hated" Cleveland because we stole your favorite stuffed animal when you were in kindergarten or something, and we know that now too. You never gave a shit about us. So, in turn, never, in a million years, ever will we love you again. Keep your talents in South Beach. Win titles. Or don't. Whatever. Just be sure to F off and stay out of Cleveland. That's all I want out of you for the next million or so years.

Go Cavs.

Sunday, August 8, 2010

Cleveland sports forecast 2010-2011: The quest for .500

It's been almost a month since LeBetrayal. And LeBitterness is still palpable, but LeReality is setting in about the Cleveland sports scene. Grab a helmet or bite down on a leather strap because we're about to discuss it.

In a post awhile ago I pointed out that as much-maligned and miserable us Cleveland fans often feel, there hasn't been too many years since the late '80s where at least one of our teams wasn't decent enough to flirt with the playoffs. As a fan, that's all you really ask for - flirtation and a few moments of fun. Asking for a championship is silly. Would you also like a unicorn and a leprechaun's pot of gold?

After That Other Player in Miami took our scorn to South Beach, he effectively murdered this streak. The other day I asked my friends an unfortunately compelling question: When is the next time a Cleveland team will go over .500? Don't think about it too much or you'll start sobbing uncontrollably. My guess is the Indians next season. Just barely. And I don't even really believe that. The best bet is maybe the Browns NEXT season. Oof. Relying on the Browns to make you happy is like relying on Brendan Fraser to make a good movie.

As the 2010 Browns season draws near, let's take stock of each new season coming up and look into the TCF crystal ball. I'll give the most optimistic outlook I can for each team. However, we all know the most optimistic forecast never happens, and any Cleveland-team outcome is about 20 percent worse than first anticipated, so then I'll factor in that 20 percent and predict how the season will actually end. Will we have a .500 season in the bunch?

Cleveland Sports Forecast 2010-2011

Browns
Preseason optimism: Under Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert, the Browns seem to have had their best draft in a long time. The top picks will play in some capacity right away and add to a core that improved at the end of last year. Four-game win streak! Don't forget that. The defense is solid with free agent additions to the secondary and linebackers. With a healthy Shaun Rogers, an improved defensive line will get that much better. On offense, we finally seem to have a philosophy. We're going to run the ball, run the ball and run the ball—just the way football was meant to be played. We have serious depth at running back, our offensive line is great and that doesn't even count the versatility of Josh Cribbs and Seneca Wallace in the wildcat. Brian Robiskie is playing well too - Terry Pluto said so!

This team honestly could flirt with .500 this season or be one of those Where Did This Team Come From?! stories that come around every year.

Predicted Bitter Outcome: Notice how I left Jake Delhomme out of the optimistic part? That wasn't an oversight. Dude's a stiff. If your QB is a stiff, your team sucks.
7-9

Cavaliers
Preseason optimism: New coach, new vision, up-tempo offensive style, playing to our strengths, lessened expectations—these things lead to surprisingly fun years. Byron Scott is the master of the rebuild. Players buy into his system early on and play together. The team still has Mo Williams, Antawn Jamison and Anderson Varejao. Ramon Sessions is a sneaky good addition at PG for this new uptempo style of play. JJ Hickson keeps getting better and will be helped immensely with the new style. Same for Boobie Gibson who actually played decent last year, finally, but was buried on the bench. Add in Jamario Moon and Anthony Parker, and the team is small but versatile. And in the East, teams like this sneak into the playoffs all of the time. And you can't discount the bonuses of removing headcase Delonte West, washed-up Shaq and team whore Gloria James.

Predicted Bitter Outcome: Just shoot me in the face. That Other Player in Miami was right about one thing, he spoiled us. This year, grabbing the eight seed would be a big accomplishment, one that would mean a lot to this city—the scrappy team that got left behind gritting out some tough wins and succeeding. It's such a nice little story there's no way it happens.
30-52

Indians
Preseason optimism: I'm ALREADY jacked for the 2011 Tribe. This team will more closely resemble our new shot at contention. It won't be fully formed, and there will be some growing pains, but it's a team that will get better. Our lineup will be fun to watch. Nick Weglarz will hit 35 homeruns. Carlos Santana will have an OPS over 1.000. Shin Soo Choo will do everything great, as always. Cabrera will be healthy. Matt LaPorta will be a steady middle of the order guy. Maybe Lonnie Chisenhall makes an appearance at some point. Hey, maybe Grady Sizemore stays healthy and returns to form. I'm telling you, this team will hit. And the bullpen is starting to be decent. For real this time. I could see them just nudge over .500 and win 80-some games.

Predicted Bitter Outcome: The starting pitching will be lackluster for most of the season. Our best young arms are still too far away. Our former best young arms all underwhelm when given a shot, especially without any steady veterans to help end short losing streaks. And I'm sure the lineup performs worse than I expect as well. Sizemore will either snap his femur or play well and get traded. And the bullpen will assuredly fall apart once again.
73-89

Welp. There it is. A full calendar year of unfun teams. Makes me want to barf. Unless you consider a 7-9 Browns team fun. Which I do. Which probably means they'll be 6-10. At best.

Go teams.

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Depressing/hopeful/realistic thoughts on the Tribe in 2010

Ever just start thinking about the 2007 ALCS and then go into a day-long depression? Yup, thought so. Happened to me yesterday.

I started thinking about it because Kenny Lofton is back in town to be inducted into the Indians Hall of Fame. I love Kenny Lofton - unconditionally. It's the type of love I had for That Other Player in Miami before I hated him unconditionally. It's the type of love I have for Josh Cribbs. But my love for Lofton is a little bit stronger because Lofton was my first favorite player. Well, I guess technically Cory Snyder was my FIRST favorite player, but at that time, I'm pretty sure I couldn't tell you what position he played.

I know that Lofton was (allegedly) an a-hole to the media and in the locker room, but I could give a flying turd about that. To young Chris, Lofton was just the man. Slapping basehits, stealing bases, rudely laying his bat down on home plate and immediately taking his gloves off after ball four—everything the guy did was cool. Remember THAT catch?? Remember when he came home from second on that wild pitch????? Remember when we signed him back in 2007 - to combine old school and new school to win a World Series???

F.

Seriously, WTF. Up 3-1, at home, with our big, fat ace on the mound. Having fun, throwin' pies. ... And the next thing I know, JD Effing Drew hits a grand slam; Joel Skinner is telling Kenny Lofton to NOT score the tying run in Game 7; Casey Blake immediately grounds into a double play; Boston scores 37 runs in two innings and it's over. It's the type of memory that causes intentional traffic accidents.

A lot of people out there in Tribe Land seem to forget this happened, even though it was just three seasons ago. It still feels like yesterday to me. It makes me cry, but it's the reason I refuse to get down about the Dolan/Shaprio regime. To me, it's proof that the process works.

Unfortunately, the years after are proof that there's no margin for error. Our core players disappointed and the payroll increases didn't improve the team. Those issues, combined with low attendance, poor drafts and a weak farm system meant it was time to start over again. Keeping Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez would not have helped this team any more than keeping Bartolo Colon in 2003. We had those guys, and we weren't good. There's no sense keeping those players, so we flipped them and restocked the minor league pipeline. In the end, baseball is about development. That's why there are six minor league teams in the states and a few teams located in Latin America. You can't get sentimental about favorite guys any more or sit around waiting for the flash-in-the-pans to find it again—at least not in Cleveland.

So here we are. A lost year. A year of development. Yet, thinking of the 2007 ALCS depresses me much more than watching the 2010 Tribe. Why? Because 2007-2009 was a swing and a miss. It was a strikeout. We came close, went for it and failed. Bummer.

2010 is the start of a new at-bat. The key being the word "start." The 2010 Tribe is only about one-third of the way into building a revamped roster and a new run at contention. I'm only concerned with: Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo, Matt LaPorta, Asdrubal Cabrera, possibly Fausto Carmona and maybe--maybe--Grady Sizemore. The rest of the team should be filled out with: 3B Lonnie Chisenhall, OF Michael Brantley, 1B/OF Nick Weglarz, 2B Jason Kipnis, P Alex White, P Jason Knapp, P Nick Hagadone, P Kevin De la Cruz, P Carlos Carrasco, P Hector Rondon or a few other guys working their way up the ladder. We're only three years removed from a playoff run and only one year into development. I enjoy watching the process in motion.

Clearly, this is not a sure thing. These guys might not pan out, and the Tribe's plan may leave us like the Pirates instead of the Rays or Twins (two teams without a World Series title, by the way)—but isn't that the case with any plan? The Cavs had a plan too, of signing every last guy to piece together a championship team on the fly, and that didn't work either. Sometimes plans don't work, no matter how logical they may be. So sit back and see what happens. You never know when the next Kenny Lofton will come driving up I-71.

Hey, if it doesn't workout by 2012, the end of the world ought to ease the suffocating sense of misery.

Go Tribe.