Well, it’s that time of year where all of Cleveland gets pumped to get let down by the Browns while a small smattering of fans still silently wallow in an Indians depression and drink themselves to sleep. Even the most ardent Indians apologists – like myself – have to admit the team is pathetic right now.
BOLD STATEMENT ALERT!! However, I maintain that the Tribe is the closest Cleveland team to a title. GASP! How can I say this? On what grounds??
Glad you asked ...
Historical precedence:
• The Tribe is bad this year, not unlike how bad the team was in 2002 (74-88) and 2003 (68-94), the last time the team was gutted and rebuilt. By 2005 though, we won 93 games. In 2007, we won 96 and were outs away from the World Series. That may have been a miraculous, once-in-a-lifetime event, but it happened, and it shows that the Dolan/Shapiro Indians have turned things around to near title contention quickly after a pathetic patch of baseball.
• Despite the hope surrounding the Holmgren era, there’s no evidence to show the Browns are closer to a title now than in any other year during this last decade of nothingness. Teams in the NFL can turn around quickly, but still, this is the F’ing Browns, and our mini-2007 run at the playoffs notwithstanding, I’ll believe it when I see it.
• The Cavs? We went to the finals ONCE. And it was with the talents of That Other Player in Miami on the team. Those talents, if I'm not mistaken, are in South Beach, and there's no reason to believe the Cavs will ever get close again without him. Gilbert is an owner willing to sell his grandmother into sex slavery to win a title, but until there is some positive team-building minus No. 6, there's no reason to give them an edge over the Tribe, a team that's contended on rags and a small payroll in the recent past.
MLB v NFL v NBA
• Baseball takes its lumps because it rewards the rich teams and poops in the mouth of the mid-market teams. However, a mid-market team that drafts well, trades its veterans well and has a plan to blend all of its young talent together at the right time always has a chance. The window might be smaller, and it might be less fun, but it’s a window, and it can happen out of nowhere—like Tampa Bay the last few years and San Diego this year (or not at all ... sorry Pirates fans).
The minor league system allows a team to constantly tinker and work toward improvement, and we can all watch and get excited about what might be. Prospects are a gamble, and sometimes (OK, often) I get stupidly excited (like when I was pumped for Trevor Crowe in 2006), but it’s a tangible reason to hope. In baseball, the team's next superstar is actually in the organization, developing. In the other sports, a team's future rests in mock drafts or trade rumors.
• With the NFL, things turn on a dime. Spend money on a free agent and he tears every ligament in his knee on the first snap of the preseason, gets staph infection and dies. The hard salary cap and short shelf life of many players makes continuity difficult. Teams come out of nowhere to succeed in any given year, but those teams often disappear just as quickly. It's much more difficult to forecast the future of an NFL team.
• In the NBA, if you don’t have a superstar, you’re totally screwed. And the only way to get one is to draft one high in the draft. The only way to do that is to suck really bad. And even then, the dude you draft might be an over-sized goof who gets his penis exposed on the Internet while recovering from multiple knew surgeries (sorry Greg Oden). Superstars normally stay with the team that drafts them because of how the NBA is setup. That old adage might be changing, with players taking their talents to other places and whatnot, but even if it is—no superstar is willing coming to Cleveland as a free agent. That much we know.
It’s very easy to be a middle-of-the-road NBA team, and the Cavs might be closer to middle-of-the-road than the Tribe, but they are no where near a title. At all. I dare say the Cavs are the furthest team from a title at this moment.
Playoff chances
• The Browns have to be better than the Steelers and the Ravens in any given year to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. And being better than those teams probably means beating them the four combined times we play them in a season. The Bengals are starting to shape up now too. That's a lot of muscle in one division. But say we get a wild card spot. Then the Browns have to beat three teams just to get to the Super Bowl. In the NFL playoffs, any fluky thing can happen. Luck is a huge factor. Bottom line, there have been XLIII Super Bowls. The Browns have had really good teams at various points during that timespan. We've never been in a Super Bowl. I need more than Jake Delhomme and Mike Holmgren to believe the Browns can get this done. Ever.
• The Cavs' division doesn't really matter. They have the best chance of squeaking into the playoffs in any given year because they are in the East. But squeaking into the NBA playoffs doesn't get a team very far, having to win three seven-game series to get to the championship—without a superstar. (The number one seed doesn't seem to get a team very far either.)
• The Tribe is in the Central Division. It is weaker than Travis Hafner's shoulder. The Tigers and White Sox trade years being mediocre, with neither showing any real team-building plan. The Twins usually are good, but not great, and certainly not rich. The Tribe only has to be better than these teams to make the playoffs. Oh, also, the Royals are a team.
From there, beat a team in a five-game series, another in a seven-game series, and it's time to play in the World Series. Definitely not easy, but it's the easiest of the three routes, I believe.
Team future
• The Cavs' future is impossible to predict because they have a large trade exception, and we’re not entirely sure how bad they will be. No.1-pick-level bad?
Having Gilbert helps, but throwing money at problems hasn’t helped the Knicks and I have as many titles as Mark Cuban. So, that’s no guarantee. Right now, as it stands, we’re pinning our hopes on Mo Williams, 34-year-old Antawn Jameson, JJ Hickson and Andy Varejao. Yikes.
• The Browns appear to be heading in the right direction. Holmgren seems to have a plan and our last draft looked decent. But we still have no QB. Jake Delhomme might be serviceable, but he’s not winning a Super Bowl. Colt McCoy looks like a young Charlie Frye. No QB means no shot. Until that changes, they are not winning a Super Bowl.
• The Tribe might lose 100 games this year, which, in a power ranking, would put them at the bottom of the three teams right now. But I still believe wins and losses this year do not paint a picture of this team’s future, which, unlike the Browns, exists in the organization already. Grady Sizemore and Carlos Santana are both out. Despite Grady’s poor play before the injury and Santana’s youth, those are significant injuries. Seriously, replace Pujols with Lou Marson and see how great the Cardinals look.
I hate to keep throwing my penny into the wishing well that is minor league baseball, but the Tribe still has several top prospects that haven't arrived in Cleveland. If the Indians loses 100 games with Choo, Sizemore, LaPorta, Santana, Cabrera, Weglarz, Chisenhall, Carassco, Carmona, Gomez, Rondon, White, Hagadone, Perez, Gardner, Knapp and so on (give or take a name or two), then I’ll officially give in and say they have no shot at contention and should fold the organization. But with baseball, and with the Tribe, in the Central Division, it’s smarter (and easier, I guess) to have a wider perspective, a longer view of the situation.
One hundred losses or not, I still see seeds that may blossom into a contender. And whether it’s how the leagues are setup or historical precedence, I just don’t see it the same way for our other teams.
There it is. The Tribe is the closest to a title. ... Drink up, everybody! First beers are on me. (Who's getting the next 19,000?)
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